Study reveals Africa will reach 1.5C climate change threshold by 2040 even under low emission scenarios

New research highlighted in the journal CABI Reviews suggests that all five subregions of Africa will breach the 1.5C climate change threshold – the limit stipulated by the Paris Agreement – by 2040 even under low emission scenarios.

A team of scientists, from the University of Zimbabwe, and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Kenya, conducted a literature review to develop a framework for just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture towards low emission and climate resilient development under 1.5C of global warming.

They found that despite Africa emitting less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, the 1.5C climate change threshold will be approached by 2040 in all five subregions of Africa, even under low emission scenarios.

Just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture are urgently required

The scientists stress that just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture are urgently required for sustainable production systems that enhance food security and poverty reduction, while optimising mitigation co-benefits.

Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice Chancellor of the University of Zimbabwe and lead author of the paper, said novel climate conditions are posing a serious threat to humanity and ecological systems, presenting and aggravating social injustices at different levels.

Distributive, procedural and recognition injustices include, the scientists say, inherent inequalities, gender disparities or narrow employment opportunities which they argue will be inevitably amplified and reinforced by the changing climate.

Prof Mapfumo said, “African agriculture-based livelihood systems will be invariably the most affected because of their reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture and limited adaptive capacity due to low economic development linked primarily to historical contingency.

“They have experienced considerable losses and damages from climate change, and this will worsen with increasing intensity of climate hazards.

“Neither the existing or planned incremental adaptation mechanisms, nor the anticipated benefits of migratory measures, are sufficiently comprehensive to match the pending novel climate conditions.”

Reprogramming of the cropping, livestock and fishery systems for climate proofing

Prof Mapfumo and his colleagues argue that the just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture should be anchored on reprogramming of the cropping, livestock and fishery systems for climate proofing with a specific focus on a range of underpinnings.

These include financing the advancement of science, technology and innovation; restoring neglected or underutilised crops and livestock genetic pools; regenerating soil fertility and advancing soil health; restoring degraded land; protecting natural ecosystems and biodiversity; accessing quality education training and information technologies; and developing markets and creating novel distribution and trade opportunities.

Prof Mapfumo added, “Such efforts should also focus on mechanising and greening Africa’s agriculture as driven by a deliberate ‘Green Industrial Revolution’ for the new normal induced by climate change.

“Sustainability of climate change response and a just transition pathway framework for Africa also lies in corresponding transformation of education systems and research capacities tailored to drive economic development for Africa.”

The scientists conclude that the developed just transition framework offers opportunities for social inclusion, equity, building capacity for self-mobilisation and self-organisation of communities for climate action, and investments in the transition pathways for building a climate resilient agriculture towards zero poverty and meaningful contribution towards zero carbon.

The African Group of Negotiators Experts Support (AGNES) funded the study.

Additional information

Main image: Maize farmers in Ghana (Credit: CABI).

Full paper reference

Paul Mapfumo, Jairos Rurinda, Laura Cramer, Terrence D. Mushore, George Wamukoya, ‘Developing just transition pathways for Africa’s agriculture towards low emission and climate resilient development under a 1.5°C global warming,’ CABI Reviews, 25 February (2025). DOI: 10.1079/cabireviews.2025.006

The paper can be read here.

Media enquiries

For more information contact:

Professor Paul Mapfumo, Vice Chancellor, University of Zimbabwe – email: paulmapfumo@gmail.com

Wayne Coles, Senior PR Manager, CABI – email: w.coles@cabi.org

About CABI Reviews

CABI Reviews is an international reviews journal that seeks out cross-cutting issues in agriculture and related sciences and global health, with a focus on research that will help world food security and attainment of sustainable development goals.

About CABI

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